Strategically Blogging

LED COB is Coming

Martin Shih 01/26/2015

We have now released our latest market research report, The World Market for COB LEDs in General Lightingwhich covers the market for LED COBs and Multichip Array COBs. We forecast the overall market for these COBs will grow significantly to $4.35 billion in 2020 from $1.54 billion in 2014. In addition, the report indicates that the market will grow by 40% YoY in 2015. The long term growth is mainly due to the increased penetration of COB luminaires and lamps into some specific lighting applications, such as downlights and spotlights. With better light distribution and design flexibility, we expect a significant growth for COB, especially in directional lighting applications.

Revolution vs. Evolution

Philip Smallwood 01/22/2015

At the 2014 Strategies in Light Europe conference, there was one recurring theme that I thought was very interesting: evolution vs. revolution. I think it is very important for people in the lighting industry to understand that LEDs in themselves are not a revolutionary (disruptive) technology that is changing the industry, but rather a natural evolutionary progression of light emitting materials/methods to create usable light. As presented by Dr. Thomas Knoop, the Managing Director of INTEGRATED, a technology is disruptive in an industry when it attacks the market by offering a different value driver (usually convenience or price) and not when it just fulfills the need of the average customer. The two charts provided below are visualizations of these ideas. 

Lighting Industry: 2014 in Review and What to Expect Next

Shonika Vijay 01/19/2015

As the year 2014 recently ended, I thought now would be a good time to review what the lighting industry has gone through along with what lighting trends we anticipate in the near future. 2014 was an amazing year for LED lighting. Here a few recent key things that LED lighting experienced in 2014:

A 2014 Laser Market in Review

Allen Nogee 12/31/2014

With 2014 ending and 2015 starting, it is a good time to reflect on the year that has passed and look ahead to the year which is starting. Total worldwide laser revenue grew 6.5% in 2014 to $9.2 billion, which is a quite strong gain overall, despite the fact that prices of many laser types continue to drop.

There was not a single region or laser type which accounted for much of the gain (with the possible exception of fiber lasers, which had a great year), but rather 2014 was strong due to the lack of any significantly bad areas or segments.

Confessions of a Lighting Analyst: I Have Never Bought an LED Bulb

Stephanie Pruitt 12/22/2014

I have three large ceiling light fixtures in the middle of three rooms in my apartment. They each have three light bulbs in them, and one bulb in each fixture was burnt out (they are currently a mix of mainly incandescent with 1-2 CFLs). So, I decided I was going to finally purchase some LED bulbs. 

Having studied the LED and lighting market for two years now, attended multiple lighting trade shows and conferences, and spoken with numerous people in the top lighting companies, I always felt slightly guilty for not ever actually buying LED bulbs myself. I have done more research on LED lighting than your average consumer; I know all about the different types of lighting technologies, how they differ in wattage and lumen output, and CRI and CCT.

Some thawing in the opto end markets?

By Tom Hausken
There are signs that some markets for optoelectronic products are thawing a little bit. Foundries in Taiwan have hired back workers. Large-area flat panel display production in Taiwan was up in March over the previous month. Sales of flat panel TVs and video recorders were up in Japan . Memory chip prices are up and Samsung, for one, expects improving demand for memory chips this quarter. Hon Hai, a major contract manufacturer, is hiring in Taiwan, China, and the Czech Republic, with expansion plans in Mexico, Turkey, Russia, and elsewhere. Even equipment supplier EV Group announced that it will add a shift to accommodate demand for through-silicon via (TSV) and nanolithography tools. Compound semiconductor supplier Triquint has also announced a bounce as inventory burns off.

At the least, this is an indication that inventories are now worked out of the supply chain. But, it's interesting that a lot of the news comes from one place: Taiwan.

Dominique Numakura of DKN Research Group notes several reasons for Taiwan's thaw in his recent newsletter . First, it's based on two successful products that are emerging now, just as the recession hurts sales for just about everything else. Those products are the netbook computer and the smart phone. Another reason is that spillover of demand from mainland China's stimulus package has driven up demand for large screen TVs supplied from Taiwan. Numakura also suggests that Taiwan has a more urgent and proactive approach to the downturn, more aggressively seeking out opportunities than Japanese and American counterparts that take a more reactionary approach.

It helps to note too that the semiconductor downturn dates all the way to 2007 already, so improvement is well overdue.

Any thawing will be good news for anyone making optoelectronic chips for common appliances: things like image sensors, displays, LEDs, etc.

There is still plenty of bad news coming out every day. For example, iSuppli doesn't buy the hype about a memory chip recovery, arguing that the supply will still exceed the growth in demand. And for the most part, the demand for fab tools and other manufacturing equipment remains frozen solid. But the chip demand has to improve before anything else can.

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