Strategically Blogging

What’s going on with CREE?

Martin Shih 06/26/2015

Cree has announced that the company will restructure its LED business in order to reduce overhead and to improve the business’s cost structure in the future.

Turn-Key Connected Lighting Solutions May Not Be Appropriate For All

Shonika Vijay 06/26/2015

This blog is another piece on the connected lighting market. To see our previous articles on the connected lighting market refer to: 'With More LED Street Lights Comes More Connected Lighting,' 'Lighting Industry: 2014 in Review and What to Expect Next,' and 'Let's Talk Controls'.

Key takeaways from Guangzhou International Lighting Exhibition - Pricing, pricing and pricing!

Martin Shih 06/10/2015

This week we attended Guangzhou Light Exhibition, the biggest lighting fair in China. There were more than 3,000 booths and full-three-day conferences. 

CSP: Big Potential in a Tiny Package?

Stephanie Pruitt 06/03/2015

Chip Scale Packaging (CSP), originally from the semiconductor industry, continues to make headlines in the LED industry.

Sales of Laser Pico Projectors Projected Up

Allen Nogee 06/03/2015

Back in 2009, LG released the first pico projector smartphone combination, the LG eXpo. This smartphone was sold by AT&T and the pico projector was sold as an add-on for an additional $180. 

The Early Peak Effect in the photonics market

By Tom Hausken
Our new market report highlights something I call the “early peak” effect that appears a lot in capital equipment sales, including many laser products. It’s what happens when you sell some lasers into a new application, and then sales drop off when the customers have installed all the lasers they need. It’s so typical of the micro materials processing market that I have come to include it in some forecasts.

Here are the phases:
· Rollout of lasers for a new application
· The early peak in sales
· Saturation of the installed base
· Early wearout and upgrades
· A second “baby boomlet” as replacements for wearouts peak


If you don’t account for the early peak effect, you can overestimate laser sales by assuming that sales continue at peak levels, year after year. The news of new applications have surprisingly wide reach and long tails, feeding the perception that sales are higher than they really are, especially if the application is really cool, like stent cutting.

What keeps the market going is that there are new applications launched on a regular basis that smoothes out the overall growth in the market. But, sales any particular company can be very choppy. And, the mix of products grows more diverse with every new application in the market.


A laser salesperson will recognize the early peak effect, but it gets lost when you look at overall market numbers. It’s not hard to explain to the old-timers in the business, but it doesn’t have a ready label, as far as I know. I couldn’t come up with a better name for it, so for now it’s the “early peak effect.” If you want to call it the “Hausken effect,” that’s fine with me, too.

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