Strategically Blogging

China Pricing War II

Martin Shih 11/17/2014

We recently took a trip to China to interview top manufacturers of LED components for our upcoming China Quarterly Updates Report. According to these major LED players, we are convinced that several LED trends we predicted in my blog at the beginning of this year did and are continuing to happen.

The Dental Laser Market Needs A Filling

Allen Nogee 10/31/2014

It was just 14 years ago when a group of dental professionals came together to form the World Clinical Laser Institute. This group was formed to promote and share their ideas and experiences and to advance dental care through the use of lasers. Today, the WCLI is the largest group of dental professionals supporting the use of lasers in dentistry; with 19,000 members, the use of lasers by the dental profession has not grown as fast as many had expected. Today, in the US, roughly 7% of all dentists use lasers, which means that 93% of dentists don’t. Of the four medical laser segments we track (cosmetic, ophthalmic, surgical, and dental), the dental area is growing the slowest.

Integrated vs. Non-Integrated Luminaires

Shonika Vijay 10/30/2014

As time goes on, it is becoming more and more apparent that LED lighting will soon take over. With the current ban of 40W through 100W incandescent light bulbs and the dropping prices of LED lighting, it is no surprise that LED lighting is the lighting of the present and will be lighting of the future. However, LED lighting was first, or in some cases still is, introduced into the market to replicate the incumbent technology so that consumers don’t get scared away by a lighting system that they can’t associate with their old one. What I mean here is that having a fixture where the consumer can physically take out the lamp and replace it if it burns out. Today, there seems to be plenty of interest in fixtures/luminaires where the lamp could be replaced.

When Will OLEDs be the Next Big Thing in Lighting?

Stephanie Pruitt 10/08/2014

OLEDs have been gaining in popularity lately, mainly in displays, but also more recently in general lighting. They offer many benefits over traditional and LED lighting, including being a surface emitting light source (as opposed to point emitting), being extremely thin, and having the capability to be flexible and even transparent. OLEDs open the doors to really innovative and creative light forms that were previously not possible with traditional lighting. However, they still have a ways to go in efficacy, lumen output, and price compared to their less expensive inorganic counterparts that are still struggling to really penetrate into the market.

Shonika Vijay

High-End Lighting Markets for Solid State Lighting

Shonika Vijay 09/30/2014

Lighting has always been seen as a commodity market. In fact, most people buy their light bulbs from the same place they buy their milk. It is a price war out there with slim profit margins on lighting products; meanwhile, the market keeps demanding higher quality. The general indoor lighting market mostly consists of the following form factors: downlights, troffers, suspended pendants, track lights, and high bay lights (a detailed market report of general lighting luminaires with these form factors along with all technologies will be released this November). Downlights and troffers make up the majority of the installed luminaire base for all regions. In order to compete for penetration in these installed luminaire bases, LED lighting has had to slash its prices while making sure it can sustain the light output levels of halogens, incandescent, and fluorescent technologies.

Why small countries will always lead in FTTH

By Tom Hausken
This just out today: the FTTH Council Europe reported the European countries with top FTTH penetration. The list is revealing, with Andorra at number 4. Number 4! This means that once again we have to put up with articles asking why the U.S. is lagging tiny Andorra in FTTH penetration.

The council announced that the top 10 countries with more than 10% penetration are: Sweden, Norway, Slovenia, Andorra, Denmark, Iceland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Slovakia, and Finland. Note that the top country, Sweden, only has about 9 million people. Andorra has about 84,000.

Other lists of this type have put countries like Singapore, South Korea, and Iceland at the top of lists of countries with high broadband or FTTH penetration. In the next breath, a policy wonk somewhere will claim that this shows that the U.S. is falling behind these up-and-coming countries. For example, here's a policy report from 2006 doing just that. The U.S. trends toward the OECD average over time as smaller countries fill out the bell curve, but that's ignored. Rather, it's spun as a call for action.

What is never pointed out is that large populations--like the U.S. or the European Union--comprise a set of smaller, more diverse populations. A grade school student knows that, no matter how you define it, the average over the total is somewhere in the middle. Some of the smaller constituents have to end up in the wings. In the U.S., progressive rural coops and wealthier communities can lead the country in fiber penetration, while many tribal lands are far behind even in basic phone service .

Moreover, any student of politics knows that countries like Sweden, Singapore, and South Korea are more inclined to adopt centralized public policies than the U.S. In the U.S., the Administration, Congress, FCC, the courts, each of 50 states, and even municipalities make telecom policy. Some of the municipalities are like Andorra, to be sure, but the overall patchwork is far from centralized, thanks to things like the Bill of Rights and the general Wild West temperament of U.S. public policy.

Policies encouraging substantial investment in FTTH may be a great thing for the U.S. I'm of the view that it's a lot more complicated than that. But whatever your view, please don't say that the U.S. is falling behind because tiny Andorra has greater penetration than the U.S.

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