Strategically Blogging

Integrated vs. Non-Integrated Luminaires

Shonika Vijay 10/30/2014

As time goes on, it is becoming more and more apparent that LED lighting will soon take over. With the current ban of 40W through 100W incandescent light bulbs and the dropping prices of LED lighting, it is no surprise that LED lighting is the lighting of the present and will be lighting of the future. However, LED lighting was first, or in some cases still is, introduced into the market to replicate the incumbent technology so that consumers don’t get scared away by a lighting system that they can’t associate with their old one. What I mean here is that having a fixture where the consumer can physically take out the lamp and replace it if it burns out. Today, there seems to be plenty of interest in fixtures/luminaires where the lamp could be replaced.

When Will OLEDs be the Next Big Thing in Lighting?

Stephanie Pruitt 10/08/2014

OLEDs have been gaining in popularity lately, mainly in displays, but also more recently in general lighting. They offer many benefits over traditional and LED lighting, including being a surface emitting light source (as opposed to point emitting), being extremely thin, and having the capability to be flexible and even transparent. OLEDs open the doors to really innovative and creative light forms that were previously not possible with traditional lighting. However, they still have a ways to go in efficacy, lumen output, and price compared to their less expensive inorganic counterparts that are still struggling to really penetrate into the market.

Shonika Vijay

High-End Lighting Markets for Solid State Lighting

Shonika Vijay 09/30/2014

Lighting has always been seen as a commodity market. In fact, most people buy their light bulbs from the same place they buy their milk. It is a price war out there with slim profit margins on lighting products; meanwhile, the market keeps demanding higher quality. The general indoor lighting market mostly consists of the following form factors: downlights, troffers, suspended pendants, track lights, and high bay lights (a detailed market report of general lighting luminaires with these form factors along with all technologies will be released this November). Downlights and troffers make up the majority of the installed luminaire base for all regions. In order to compete for penetration in these installed luminaire bases, LED lighting has had to slash its prices while making sure it can sustain the light output levels of halogens, incandescent, and fluorescent technologies.

Fiber Laser Market Continues to Evolve

Allen Nogee 09/05/2014

I’ve always been a person who has been very interested in the latest technology, and sometimes it’s hard for me to believe how much technology has changed over the years.

Everything from flat screen TVs, DVRs, audio equipment, cables and wiring, computers, tablets, smartphones, and so many others have evolved over the years, and in most ways, the new technology is quicker, smaller, cheaper, and more energy efficient. Today we take all these things for granted, but it wasn’t that long ago that a flat screen TV or a smartphone was a novelty. Today we just can’t even imagine living without these things.

Martin Shih

A Win-Win Situation: Cree Announces Investment in Lextar through Private Placement

Martin Shih 09/05/2014

Cree recently announced plans to invest US $83M in Lextar Electronics, one of Taiwan’s major LED manufacturers, in order to acquire 13% of Lextar shares and to enter a supply/royalty agreement. Cree will become Lextar’s second largest shareholder (AUO, Lextar’s parent company, is the biggest shareholder) and obtain one member of BOD. This deal is expected to be done at the end of 2014 and the lock-up period is 3 years, which means Lextar will reserve its capacity for Cree for 3 years.

The photonics market, one year later

By Tom Hausken
Do you believe the stock market, GDP, or unemployment figures? Are we in a recovery, or still in recession? V-shaped, W-shaped, or U-shaped? As we do our annual survey and forecast for Laser Focus World magazine and the upcoming Marketplace Seminar , a lot of this gets mixed up. There will be more to come later, but here are some early thoughts.

Many public photonics companies have seen great stock returns. The stock market looks at future earnings--that is, profits--regardless of jobs or where the jobs are. A rising market says that investors think the future is good, and it's good for employee stock options and so forth. Some photonics stocks have shot way up, well beyond the average. LED companies in particular. Even those that haven't are seeing a bounce off the bottom, suggesting that it won't get worse. Stay tuned to this blog for more on this.

Small photonics companies span the spectrum. The stock market doesn't say anything about small businesses, but there are far more small, private photonics companies than public ones. I love these companies because many are much more profitable than their more visible brethren. For example, think of suppliers for military contracts, medical systems, and so forth. But, small businesses have very little wiggle room in a recession like this. California public radio explained it well in a piece today , using the example of a maker of tortilla-making equipment that sells for up to $3 million. It has gone from 55 employees to 9, and still has problems getting credit a year into the crisis.

Large capital equipment to make large capital equipment is hit hardest. The radio piece highlights a point I've been making, that the recession will be especially long for companies that make large capital equipment, and especially large capital equipment that makes large capital equipment. So for example, the market for welding systems for making cars is likely to be slow for another year or two, while the LED market will jump ahead next year.

Use economic indicators with caution. Use economic indicators with caution. One tool for forecasting is to look at economic indicators. Of course, they are complicated, but they can be very useful. But you do need to understand some of the limitations of the indicators, though. For example, Joe Webb points out in his blog article for the print industry how leading indicators often get it wrong . The blog piece is appropriately titled, "Beware the Cheerleaders."

Even as we all bask in the news that the economy grew last quarter, economists are working to correct errors that likely overstate the value of GDP growth. When goods and services are moved offshore, the total value may be counted in the current accounts, but it may not be allocated correctly to specific industries. It's as if you compare two companies that manufacture in China: one outsources it while the other operates it itself. The productivity of the former would look better than the latter if you don't count the outsourced labor.

A similar issue arises when you look at the trade deficit but not the entire current accounts, or for that matter, capital accounts. So what if iPhones are made in China? China adds only a few percent of the value, Japan adds much more, but the U.S. captures as much as 50% of the retail value. Yet, it looks as if it is imported from China so the other contributions are lost in our trade statistics. It should wash out in China's numbers, but not all of it will wash out in the U.S. numbers. But that is part of a very large topic, better saved for another time.

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