Strategically Blogging

Laser Choices Improve Along with Laser Specs

Allen Nogee 03/18/2015

Having just finished all the forecasts and estimations of the recently released report, The Worldwide Market for Lasers 2015, this is the time I step back and look at last year’s laser market in retrospect. It is quite common for industry analysts (myself included) to attempt to “fit” a market they are investigating over other markets which have proceeded it. This is a part of normal human experience - mapping the unknown to what they do know. Unfortunately, what I have found from my experience in technology, 30+ years actually, is that no technology really duplicates another in evolution, no matter how much they may appear similar at first glance.

Key Takeaways from the 2015 China LED Signage Show

Martin Shih 03/16/2015

Strategies Unlimited was invited to present at one of the world’s biggest LED Signage Shows, giving an overview of the worldwide LED signage market and trends for 2015 during the conference. We will also update our signage market data in our upcoming report, “The Worldwide Market for LEDs 2015,” which will publish in April. Although this conference was held right after the Chinese New Year Holidays, which led to fewer attendees than 2014, we still saw all the major LED signage suppliers demonstrate their latest LED signs and outdoor/indoor displays for 2015. 

What is new in the SSL Lighting Industry: Recap of Strategies in Light 2015

Shonika Vijay 03/10/2015

Strategies in Light had yet another successful year of conference and exhibition in Las Vegas two weeks ago. The conference started off with informative workshops and a captivating investor forum showcasing start-ups such as Orama, RayVio, LUXeXceL, LumaStream, Nordic Power Converters, Transphorm, Fusion Optix, Stack Lighting, QuarkStar, and ecoSpectral. The now established company, Cooledge, also reminisced on their first debut at SIL U.S. a few years ago and their journey to becoming a recognized company in the SSL Industry. Here are a few highlights from the show:

Highlights of DOE Solid State Lighting R&D Conference

Shonika Vijay 02/09/2015

Recently, we had the DOE R&D conference in San Francisco. As always, it was a great event as the key industry players and decision makers came under one roof. I wanted to share some of my highlights and experiences from the event. Before that, one of the treats for me was looking at the new Bay Bridge from the shores of Treasure Island. Though I am a Bay Area resident, I regret that I hadn’t done this before—I usually just drive through it. The Bay Bridge looked magnificent, as it wore jewels of LED lights. The directionality of the lights was brilliant and it limited light spillage into the bay. So thank you, DOE, for allowing me this experience.

What does LG Chem's "5 lm/$" really mean for lighting?

Stephanie Pruitt 02/05/2015

LG Chem came out this week claiming to have the world’s highest OLED lumen-price ratio at 5 lm/$, but what does this really mean, and how does it compare to traditional and LED lighting?

To really see how this ground breaking development in OLED lighting compares, I have listed below the average selling prices (ASPs) for the general lighting luminaire form factors that Strategies Unlimited believes OLEDs can potentially penetrate: downlights, troffers, and suspended pendants (we do not believe OLEDs will play in track lighting, high bay, or street lighting due to current lumen output, efficacy, and price).

The solar market and the 2nd-Derivative Paradox

By Tom Hausken
How could equipment sales in an exponentially-growing market be anything but upward? It happens all the time. Welcome to the 2nd-Derivative Paradox. That's my name for the trap that one can fall into when it comes to capital equipment markets. Solar is a great example. It's hard to explain the paradox, though, so bear with me.

Start with installed capacity. If you are a power generator, you think in terms of the cumulative installed generating capacity in the world. This is what the users actually use. The figure shows three scenarios how that might play out, and they all look pretty much the same in this chart. Nice, steep slopes. Note how they all start at the same point and end up at the same point.



Then look at panel shipments. But the solar panel industry isn't interested in what's already out there. It needs to ship new panels every year. The shipments amount to a 1st derivative: the new capacity that's added to the infrastructure every year. Now the differences in the scenarios show through, as shown in the second figure. But the scenarios all show steep upward growth. What's to worry about?


Now look at panel manufacturing equipment. The solar manufacturing equipment industry, and that includes lasers--isn't even interested in solar shipments, but the need for more manufacturing capacity to make the panels. You only need more equipment when you are shipping more panels than before. That amounts to a 2nd derivative of the cumulative generating capacity, and can give wildly different results. New equipment is shipped in all three scenarios, but in the "sustaining" scenario the equipment shipments are flat year after year, while in the "slowing" scenario they start out strong, but then decline. Ouch.

Other traps. Of course we would all like to live in the "growing" scenario. The trouble is, strong positive exponential growth doesn't last indefinitely, no matter what they say. And that's not even considering some ups and downs along the way, like this year. A slight shift in the solar panel shipments wreaks total havoc for equipment shipments.



Other things that juice equipment sales. The same trap exists in other industries, too. But there are other details to consider. First, there is usually some churn in suppliers. Machines also get obsolete. And there is also the early obsolescence forced by things like Moore's Law. These all have to be considered.

Watch that 2nd derivative. Don't get me wrong. I love solar. I had a summer job at TI testing solar cells back in the Jimmy Carter era. We all believe it's going to be a great thing in coming decades. But it's not enough that the cumulative generating capacity will be on a steep upward slope for years to come, because when it comes to manufacturing equipment, it's the 2nd derivative that counts.

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