Strategically Blogging

IKEA Lives Up to its Promise to Only Sell LED Bulbs

Stephanie Pruitt 08/18/2015

In 2012, IKEA, the world’s largest home-furnishings retailer, vowed that it would only sell LED lamps in its stores by 2016. Three years later, it looks as though the retail giant is keeping its word and getting a head start.

The End of the Smartphone Era Has Arrived. Bring in the Lasers.

Allen Nogee 08/06/2015

It’s really hard to believe that it has been just a little over 8 years since Apple introduced the iPhone, the smartphone which more or less started the smartphone revolution. In 2014, close to 1.2 billion smartphones were shipped, with Apple and Samsung leading the pack. But smartphone shipments are slowing, so manufacturers are doing what they can to get new customer by adding lasers.

Remembering Dr. Roland Haitz

Shonika Vijay 08/06/2015

We heard about the passing of Dr. Roland Haitz in late June and we wanted to take this moment and remember the pioneering figure behind the evolving world of LEDs. We give our condolences to Dr. Haitz’s family, friends and the many lives his research and work touched.

What’s going on with CREE?

Martin Shih 06/26/2015

Cree has announced that the company will restructure its LED business in order to reduce overhead and to improve the business’s cost structure in the future.

Turn-Key Connected Lighting Solutions May Not Be Appropriate For All

Shonika Vijay 06/26/2015

This blog is another piece on the connected lighting market. To see our previous articles on the connected lighting market refer to: 'With More LED Street Lights Comes More Connected Lighting,' 'Lighting Industry: 2014 in Review and What to Expect Next,' and 'Let's Talk Controls'.

More on the fiscal year effect

By Tom Hausken
I got several questions about my chart a couple weeks ago that showed two different curves for the laser market depending on when you count your fiscal year. I'm taking some space here to explain it a little better.  The chart is below, and shows the quarterly results of representative laser suppliers aggregated over two different 12-months cycles: January to December and the same data for July to June.



The first question is: why does it matter? For one thing, if your company reports revenues on a year from--say--July 1 to June 30, your results will look very different than your competitor that reports from January 1 to December 31. Every company I know of reports their quarterly numbers quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, of course. For what that's worth, that quarterly information becomes a common denominator. But the quarterly nuances are lost in the annual reports.

For example, TRUMPF had a rousing year ending June 30 , with about 50% growth measured in both dollars or euros. That's fantastic, but keep in mind that TRUMPF doesn't report quarterly numbers. It doesn't have to report numbers at all, since it's a private company. The very good fiscal year followed two years of declines. Most companies reporting on calendar years only had one down year: 2009. So, TRUMPF looked like it was doing worse than everybody for two years, and now it looks like it outperformed. In fact, it's about the same--it just reports on different calendar.

The other question is: how can it make that much difference? In this recession, the four worst quarters all fell in 2009. So any company reporting on the calendar year saw a really bad 2009 and only upward results after that. TRUMPF simply split the bad quarters, spreading the bad quarters over two fiscal years.

There is one more nuance to this. People are most familiar and emotional about the metrics that they know best, not necessarily the ones that I have to use. For example, salespeople often speak of orders and pricing for sales that haven't happened yet, since that is where they are working with their customers. But those orders and pricing may be unrepresentative of orders earlier this year.

Another example is that people rejoice over recent good news and panic over recent bad news--even if it is stripped of its context. Part of my job is to put the context back.

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